Week Seven

 

Yesterday I had the opportunity to witness some monumental moments in what will some day be Iraqi history.

 

The first was a real tear jerker.  I could barely suppress the shivering joy that bubbled up inside of me, to see a twenty-year-old Iraqi male stand triumphantly in the same position, on the same platform, of the parade ground where Saddam Hussein had overlooked the previous Iraqi army.

 

We had driven to this historic parade ground that day, to check on our pre-staged emergency response teams.  These teams were on stand-by, should an incident have occurred during the second Transitional National Assembly (TNA). 

 

We were accompanied by one of our Iraqi translators, whose own family had been oppressed by the Saddam régime.  The parade ground (known as Crossed Sabers) had a raised seating area.   One portion (the most prominent) was obviously the platform where Saddam would be seen.  Many news stories over the years have shown images of Saddam standing in this exact position (usually with a shot gun over his head).  Up until Operation Iraqi Freedom, (OIF) if any man had dared to even tread upon this sacred platform, they would have been tortured and killed.

 

But now, not only could we walk in this area, but this young man found himself the unique opportunity to stand in Saddam’s exact spot and mock his gestures, without fear of repercussion.  This carefree attitude my friends, is the early markings of true freedom.  I was privileged to have borne witness to it.

 

The second experience of the day was a continuation of what will most likely be the greatest everlasting experience of my year.  I say “continuation” because to what I am referring is the on going process of developing this country’s government.  I have the unique opportunity (due to my position) to observe much of the political events taking place here.

 

I did not attend the first TNA, because no foreigners were allowed within the conference halls at that time.  I was just outside however, and received a play-by-play of the events.

 

Unfortunately, the 1st TNA meeting, didn’t have much in the way of events.  They meet for a far shorter time than expected, and accomplished far less.

 

The 2nd meeting went worse.  Things got accomplished, mind you; they just were in the wrong direction.

 

You see, these government members, although adults by age and years of Iraqi experience, are still children in the realm of democracy.  They have never lived in a democracy, or studied it in school.

 

A group of fifth graders in a student government class could organize themselves just as well.

 

I almost think, that instead of Condoleezza Rice, and various other professional government officials leading these people, it would be better if they got my old social studies teacher to do it.  That way they’d have a supervisor with more experience managing children.  Maybe someone who knows how to teach government at a elementary level.

 

I prophesized the following thought to my mom.  I believe, my first measure of supporting evidence evolved at the 2nd TNA.  There is going to be a civil war.  I truly believe that the Kurdish people will announce their secession from the country within the next month or two.  That will bring about the need for an invasion, either by Iraqi forces only, or with UN and Coalition Forces.

 

Worse, the succession may not be seen as completely wrong by some.  Other countries may see the secession as a clean break, without need for repercussions.  The Kurds almost entirely occupy the area which they would claim as there own country.  Very few Sunni and Shiite Muslims live in that area.  The break would be much smoother than what is being faced in Israel.

 

The Iraqi people don’t even like the Kurds.  Loosing them from the government would be of little issue to them.  The real problem is the land.

 

The very rich land.

 

One of the most advanced and economically sound cities in the country would be annexed in the by Kurdish community, as well as 60% of the oil.

 

And that’s where the real issues are.

 

Without the oil and international commerce, Iraqis would find themselves back in the dark ages.  For that reason, the Iraqi government cannot tolerate the secession of the Kurdish people in the north.

 

My sources for all of this have been the following:  My own command, US military newspapers, local papers (translated), speaking with some of the coalition force TNA organizers during the proceedings, and a group of local Iraqis, with whom I meet daily for tea.  I have also been privileged to sit in on the local DACK meetings, which would be the equivalent of a State congress.  I sit in on these meetings with a translator and listen to what is discussed.

 

The theme of all is the same. 

 

  • Inability to construct a government, or even carry on a conversation without it deteriorating into a fifth grade school yard squabble
  • Discontent with everything, and finger pointing as to who is responsible
  • Horse-trading talks between Sunni and Shiite members behind the Kurds back
  • Hints that the Kurdish people will make their move soon…This being supported by the Kurdish lack of attendance in the NACK, DACK, and TNA proceedings
  • Off-hand comments by Sunni and Shiite locals about how awful the Kurdish people are and how they are not even to be considered Iraqi or Muslim
  • And finally, an unusual alliance forming between Sunni and Shiite leaders that exceeds what the popular vote would have brought about in other democratic countries

 

I think this last point is very telling.  While I was at the 2nd TNA, I found a nice cozy position up against the grand marble staircase that led to the 2nd floor conference rooms.  The stairs were protected by the Iraqi police, and only delegates and their bodyguards were allowed up.  (the “bodyguard” is also an important issue, which I will come back to later)

 

I was tall enough to just barely peek over the stairway wall from the position I found.  My spot was rather unobtrusive, and I was left alone for quite a while.  I found myself privy to a number of conversations taking place on the stairway.  The conversations were in English.  They were not by the delegates themselves, but rather by foreign reporters who were discussing what was taking place among the delegates.

 

A few sentinel events unfolded that day.

 

First, the keynote speaker refused to talk.  He had issue with the way things were going and chose not to participate.  This event alone, almost brought about cancellation of the entire day, since it was perceived as a great insult by all the delegates.

 

Second, the Kurdish delegate who was going to be nominated as the Speaker of the House (or its equivalent) declined the nomination, indicating that it was an insult as well.  He did not show up either.

 

Third, almost none of the Kurdish delegates attended.

 

Fourth, instead of the proceedings going as planned, the entire morning deteriorated into small groups of delegates going into separate rooms with one and another.  Rumors were that the “horse-trading” I mentioned earlier was taking place in the small meetings.  The TNA was supposed to be one large organized assembly, but instead the delegates scurried back and forth from one chamber to another, making their own unofficial deals.

 

Fifth, those deals seemed to be taking place between unusual partners.  Many of the journalists commented that unusual Shia/Sunni allegiances seemed to be forming.  The Sunni had already ostracized themselves from the government, secondary to their poor voter turnout, but now, even their small number of delegates seemed to have the opportunity to form very powerful alliances.

 

Sixth and last, the “bodyguard” issue seemed to echo more of their inequality issues.  The interim prime minister decreed that only one personal security agent (bodyguard) could accompany the delegates into the conference room.  He and a few others however, insisted that they could bring four or five each.  How’s that for inequality?  It was a major point of contention and quite a crisis erupted for a while over that one.

 

After I left the conference, I went for tea with my own “Iraqi” delegation.  My panel of carefully selected members consists of an ex-pharmacist who now runs a tea room, an ex-electrical engineer who now sells cigarettes, an ex-military general, who now translates for us, an ex-lawyer who now drinks a lot of tea, two employed electrical workers, and a disgruntled Iraqi male who’s entire family was murdered by Hussein.

 

According to them, the Kurds have made five demands.  If the demands are not met, they threaten to leave the Iraqi government all together.

 

Their demands are as follows:

 

  1. They want the President to be Kurdish.  This in itself is not such a bad demand.  The position of president, is actually the second highest.  The number one government position is the Prime Minister.  Since the Kurds have the second highest representation in government, “President” is not an inappropriate request.  Instead, they were offered “Speaker of the House” which is fourth.
  2. They want the city of Kirkuk to be all Kurdish.  This means the right to throw out the Sunnis and Shiites.  That is not an option.
  3. They want the rights to 60% of the oil in the country, although their people number only 20% of the population.
  4. They want a Kurd to be in charge of the three top ministries: Oil, Finance, and the Interior.
  5. They want to form their own militia.

 

I pray that you can see the difficulty with their demands.  And this is why, after all I have seen recently, I still stand by my theory that a succession and civil war are on the horizon.

 

The next issue would then be what the US would do about it.

 

Apparently G. W. BUSH made a promise (in writing) that he would not let civil war erupt in Iraq.  The Iraqi people harp on this claim daily.  They fully expect, that should the Kurdish secede, that the US forces will march into the north an reclaim the land.

 

They even ask me point blank if this is what we plan.  I always answer the same, “I don’t make the decisions, I just do what I am told”, but unfortunately, I’m getting the impression that the US has no intention of moving in on Kurdish forces.  At the moment the general political air, as described by US troops, is that the Iraqi people need to learn to solve their own problems or we will never get a chance to leave.

 

Oh God…I hope I’m not correct about all this, but I fear I am.

 

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